Not many people know about an indicator which has been right since 1932. It makes a surprising prediction about 2015 as I show in this interview with Zak Mir. See video:
The presidential election cycle indicator was discovered by Jeremy Grantham.
Based on results going back to 1932, this indicator says that the 3rd year of a US presidential term usually sees the biggest gains in stocks.
This indicator has only been wrong once which was during the second world war. However, the loss was only 1%, and if you counted dividends it would actually have been a winning year!
Take a look at the stock market results of this election cycle indicator for each of the presidential years:
As you’ll see, on average the 3rd year of the election cycle has gained 26%. That is a tremendous return!
By the way, two important thing to remember:
1) According to Grantham, each “year” of the indicator cycle starts in October – NOT in January (this is because October is just after Q3 of the financial calendar); and
2) the biggest gains in stocks are from the period of October to April.
Based on this, it means that year three of the current presidential cycle starts in just a few months: in October 2014.
Therefore, if this cycle repeats, we could be looking at yet another phenomenal year in stocks ahead of us after October of this year going into 2015.
It also means that unless we get a 10% or 20% correction in stocks this year (which is likely), it is improbable that we will see another one in 2015.
Did this article help you? Leave me your own comments about the video and this article below.
Interesting, but given that the stock market has already returned 30% last year – how likely is it do you think that we will see something like that next year in 2015? Thanks.
I am not sure how long the Fed can continue to pump this bubble in 2015, but given what they have achieved in the past in producing artificial bubbles, then I would not be surprised to see this indicator work as predicted.
What do we buy exactly in October?
If this is true, I guess the S&P will continue to go lower to 1890-1900 as many predicted tomorrow or next few days. Then, it will bounce back to the 1950 level. I hope this will give me an opportunity to unload my stocks. Technically this should happen, right? Coincidentally, my source told me there will be a big drop in stock markets in September/October. I suppose that will be the time when the 10-20% correction happens. After the scare near the Halloween, the market will power up to the big gain that you mention all the way till April.
Of course my crystal ball is never perfectly clear. Please share with us if yours or anyone else’s tells something different.
Does the year 3 big percentage gain count from the beginning of a calendar year (January, 2015) or end of correction (October, 2014?).
I really dont know anymore! all i know is what i see on the ground at its level! i see people having to rely on foodbanks to feed themselves! disabled and sick people having there benefits taken away! the nhs being destroyed so it can be sold off to wall street, an expanding totalitarian corporative police state government where if you now make a comment on social media that go’s against the grain! you get a knock at the door and arrested under trumped up stupid non laws like, suspicion of harassment wtf? etc etc etc! and if you look at this insane financial world market it seams to feed off this by driving up values of stocks on bad news in this cheap money for the rich! corrupt and immoral system!
Alessio like i know you know what you do but this irrelevant info is just too mutch blah like come on, shit i live on an island because of my prediction’s (yepp some crystal ball shit) and i am the sole creator of mr(Minerva reflectionem) and a rising star I know what I do, whitin two year’s owner and manager of a hedge fund with 50m€ capital. I don’t know but maybe you wanna do something serious! together, instead of creating a team! come on bro while balancing a ball on my nose smoking a cigg and without even parting with a cent, if not I am a unicum oh well. But Alessio you’re awesome but come on you have one indicator that’s all you need. So you serious or just ego playing in that case ahhhh just waist time if you want but the rest of us is steady att work :-/ and also a shouth out to Debra B-)
It’s certainly a interesting statistic Alessio which is worth keeping a eye on.
I’m more fascinated with the one time it was incorrect indicator, the out break of WWII.
Geopolitical tensions are higher than they have been in years and it all seems to be deteriorating and getting worst.
I agree with u Alessio, cause,
I take 2 other financial E-letters that have excellent track records & they both told me the same Info 2 months ago, so I invested more.
Keep up the great work!
Josh, in Orlando, Florida